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Iliniharnessracing/ News Article

Astonishing, Mind Boggling, And Unbelievable.

February 10, 2010

By J.C. Trevino for Illiniharnessracing.com

 

We have been back racing for nine racing days, and its astonishing to me that the fifty cent pick five has gone unsolved so many times—a total of five times. Are the gamblers that horrific? No, that’s definitely not the right answer. You can go to grandstands all across the nation and they are filled with patrons (the same people who have been betting for decades). In all actuality the answer to this question could be debated for days, months, and even years without the real reason--why this gimmick and other gimmicks go unsolved so many times.  I myself as a gambler will give you my individual reasons why this gimmick and other gimmicks go unsettled so many times;

 

One of my reasons is; gamblers all over the planet have allowed themselves get liberated up with simulcast too much-- over the last fifteen years or so. Before the betting public would only be able to bet on nine or ten races a day. The sharp observer would be able to notice things and remember things that happen in those races for next weeks racing action--where they could exploit.  Now a day these regulars are able to bet on over a hundred races on any given day-- with races going off every five minutes or even going off at the same time. So how can it be achievable for them to remember what has happen in over one hundred races?  Its impossible there is no way they can remember everything that has happened in all those races! It’s unbelievable to me, if they really think they can retain all the information that they need.

 

Then you have the morning lines that could be at an all time bad throughout all of North America- with the exceptions of Ed Burgart from Los Alamitos, Dave Brower from the Meadowlands, and a few others.  It’s astonishing how bad the morning line can be —it’s mind boggling how many times a horse is listed at 12/1 and opens as the favorite and looks like he should have been the morning line favorite. Its unbelievable how many times a horse is listed at 2/1 in the morning line and should have been listed at no less then 10/1.  Are these morning line guys actually putting the time and endeavor they are getting paid for? Do they understand there is millions of dollars being wager from there expertise opinions? Do they recognize that there is still lots of gamblers that still look at the bottom of the book to help them with there selections?  Trust me I have witnessed it with my own two eyes where patrons bet from the bottom of the book. They take the morning line guys advice-- extremely inconceivable to me.

 

Then you have the size of the pools that has the main reason why there is so many carryovers. With pools being less than five thousand in these gimmicks-- all it takes is one long shot to win and there you have it a rain check-a carryover. Now in big circuit like Los Alamitos and the Meadowlands where they get over a hundred thousand dollars in there pick fours they hardly ever carryover. I myself have in no way seen a carryover in a pick four at Los Alamitos--at the Meadowlands it happens, but not that often, maybe three or four times a racing season. The pool is 75% of the reason why there is so many carryovers at the minor tracks. Take Maywood who has been racing for only four days, in three of the four days there were carryovers--with a fifty cent bare minimum to the gimmick--on a half mile racetrack exceptionally mind boggling to me. At Balmoral in five days of racing the same gimmick has carried over twice—again a fifty cent bare minimum—with undersized fields— with favorites winning three of the legs. Absolutely unthinkable to me those three favorites win, and you have a carryover with a fifty cent bare minimum.

 

Now there is a benefit to all of this—the carryover.  First in addition to that you get to gamble at a bet with uninteresting money in it-- which causes a less take out on the gimmick as well as of course other patrons investing more capital going after the carryover. These patrons will tend to spread a little more hoping for the miracle with the hope of catching that out of line horse or catching the slight possibility of catching lighting in the bottle.

 

In all reality these carryover always seem to pay out of line-- take last Wednesday pick five at Balmoral it returned over 160 dollars-- without a horse paying over eight dollars to win-- with three favorites and two second choices winning and a odds on favorite winning the last leg. (Here are the morning line odds race by race 8/5, 5/2, 6/1, 4/1, & 8/5). How did this pick 5 pay so much?

 

Now that’s Astonishing, Mind Boggling, and Unbelievable.

 

 

Editor’s note: There are carryovers at Balmoral and Maywood when racing resumes this week, and trust me I will be investing some capital.